KILLED · unfalsifiable
Hypothesis
Price moves in 5-3 Elliott wave patterns with Fibonacci-ratio retracements (0.382, 0.618) that can be counted and traded.
Math
$$ \text{retrace levels} = \{0.236,\,0.382,\,0.5,\,0.618,\,0.786\}\times\text{prior swing} $$
Method
Attempted to encode objective wave-counting rules; tested Fibonacci retracement-level bounces as entries across symbols.
Results
| Wave count reproducibility | low — analyst-dependent |
| Fib-level bounce edge | none vs random levels |
Elliott counts are unfalsifiable (any move can be re-labelled after the fact), and Fibonacci retracement levels show no edge versus arbitrary percentage levels. A narrative framework, not a testable system. Killed.
If a method can be re-counted to fit any outcome after the fact, it makes no forward prediction. Unfalsifiable is just a slower way of saying useless.