← Research logSeasonality
PARTIAL · sizing
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Volatility has a robust intraday seasonality (Asian / EU / US session overlaps); sizing and stop distances should adapt to the hour.

Average absolute return by UTC hour (vol seasonality):

$$ \bar\sigma_h = \frac{1}{N_h}\sum_{t:\,\text{hour}(t)=h}|r_t| $$

Estimate the intraday vol curve per symbol; scale position size and ATR-stops by the hour-of-day factor.

Intraday vol seasonalitystrong & stable
Directional edgenone
Stop-distance improvementreal
PARTIAL EDGE
No directional edge, but the volatility-by-hour pattern is strong and stable (US open / session overlaps) — adopted to scale stop distances and sizing intraday so a fixed-percent stop is not too tight at 14:00 UTC and too loose at 04:00.
Intraday vol seasonality is one of the most robust patterns in markets. It will not tell you direction, but it should shape every stop and size you set.

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