KILLED · negative both halves
Hypothesis
A close above the recent swing high ("break of structure" in SMC vocabulary) signals continuation; buy the breakout. The trend-following half of every SMC course.
Definition
\text{BOS}: \quad C_t > \max(H_{t-48..t-2}) \times 1.002
Method
Long the breakout close, SL −2%, TP +4%, 12h cap. Same universe / friction. n = 2,284, time-split 60/40.
Results
| Trades | 2,284 |
| Win rate | 39% |
| Mean net per trade | −0.20% |
| Test-half mean | −0.34% |
| t-statistic | −4.1 |
Why it failed
- Crypto 4h-scale swing breaks are where breakout sellers live: the market-maker fades the obvious level, and the retail stop cluster above the high is the exit liquidity.
- Negative in both time halves — not a regime artifact.
Buying the most visible level on the chart nets −0.20%/trade. If a structure break is obvious enough to teach, it is obvious enough to fade.
The breakout premium documented in older equity literature does not survive on crypto perps where stop-hunting is an industry.