KILLED · zero after fees
Hypothesis
A three-candle gap (candle 1 high below candle 3 low) is an "imbalance" that price returns to fill; buying inside the gap rides the continuation.
Definition
\text{bullish FVG}: \quad L_{t} > H_{t-2}\times 1.006, \qquad \text{entry at } \tfrac{L_t + H_{t-2}}{2}
Method
Limit at gap midpoint on retrace, SL under gap base, TP 2R. Same universe / friction / split. n = 1,151.
Results
| Trades | 1,151 |
| Win rate | 41% |
| Mean net per trade | +0.05% |
| Profit factor | 1.08 |
| t-statistic | 1.1 — statistically zero |
Verdict logic
- There is a faint gross tendency for gaps to act as support — and it is almost exactly the size of retail friction.
- t = 1.1 on eleven hundred trades means the observed +0.05% is indistinguishable from luck.
Not a scam, just not an edge: the effect exists at roughly fee-size and nets to noise. You trade a thousand times to end where you started, minus stress.
An effect equal to the cost of trading it is economically nonexistent. "Statistically visible" and "monetizable" are different bars.