KILLED · coincident
Hypothesis
Rising search interest in a coin precedes retail inflows and price; trading the search-volume z-score front-runs the crowd.
Math — normalized search interest
$$ z^{SVI}_t = \frac{\text{SVI}_t - \mu_{SVI}}{\sigma_{SVI}} $$
Method
Weekly/daily Google Trends SVI for top coins vs forward returns; lead-lag cross-correlation.
Results
| Peak cross-correlation lag | 0 (coincident) |
| SVI leads price | no — lags or simultaneous |
| Data latency | days + revisions |
Search interest is coincident-to-lagging with price (people search after a move, not before) and the data is delayed and revised. By the time SVI spikes, the move has happened. No front-running edge.
Attention follows price more than it leads it. Crowd-interest data describes the move you already missed.