PARTIAL · macro only
Hypothesis
The Puell Multiple (daily miner revenue vs its yearly average) marks cyclical extremes via miner capitulation/euphoria.
Math — Puell Multiple
$$ \text{Puell} = \frac{\text{daily issuance value}}{\text{365-day MA of issuance value}} $$
Method
BTC Puell vs forward 90/180-day returns across cycles; halving-aware.
Results
| Cyclical extremes flagged | 3/3 |
| Independent observations | n≈3 |
| Tactical use | none |
Like MVRV (N-031), a coherent macro compass with only ~3 independent cycle observations and zero tactical resolution. Informs long-horizon posture; never an entry.
Halving-cycle metrics share one fatal property: the sample size is the number of cycles. Three points cannot reject a null.