KILLED · the spring is a trapdoor
Hypothesis
A false break below a mature trading range that instantly reclaims ("spring") marks the end of accumulation — the classic Wyckoff long trigger, heavily marketed in 2024-26 course culture.
Definition
\text{range}_{96}: \tfrac{H_r-L_r}{L_r}\le 5\% ; \quad \text{spring}: L_t \in (0.99\,L_r,\,L_r), \; C_t > L_r
Method
Long the reclaim close, SL under the spring wick, TP 2R, 12h cap. Same harness. n = 2,058.
Results
| Trades | 2,058 |
| Win rate | 33% |
| Mean net per trade | −0.21% |
| Profit factor | 0.59 |
| t-statistic | −10.5 |
Why it failed
- Mechanically, a spring is indistinguishable from a range starting to fail — and on crypto perps ranges resolve down as often as up.
- Worse than the random floor. Same verdict as its SMC twin, the liquidity sweep (N-113): the reclaim carries no directional information.
A 1930s tape-reading heuristic, retested on 2026 crypto: −0.21%/trade, PF 0.59. The accumulation story is unfalsifiable; the losses are not.
If two differently-branded setups (spring, liquidity sweep) share one mechanical definition, they share one fate. Test the definition, not the brand.