KILLED · narrative only
Hypothesis
BTC behaves as digital gold; gold momentum leads BTC, exploitable as a cross-asset overlay.
Math
$$ \rho_{BTC,Gold}\ \text{rolling, with lead-lag scan over } \pm 10\text{ days} $$
Method
Lead-lag cross-correlation BTC vs XAU since 2017.
Results
| Average correlation | ≈ 0.05 |
| Stable lead-lag | none |
The "digital gold" link is a narrative, not a statistic: realized BTC–gold correlation hovers near zero with no stable lead-lag. Killed before it cost anything.
A compelling story is not a correlation. Measure the relationship before trading the thesis.