PARTIAL · slow signal
Hypothesis
Large net inflows of a coin to exchange wallets precede selling; net outflows precede accumulation. Trading the netflow z-score anticipates pressure.
Math — netflow z-score
Standardize daily net exchange flow:
$$ z_t = \frac{(\text{Inflow}_t - \text{Outflow}_t) - \mu}{\sigma} $$
Method
On-chain exchange-flow series for majors, z-score extremes as directional bias, forward 1–3 day returns. Daily granularity only.
Results
| Inflow-spike → next-3d drift | weakly negative |
| Information coefficient (IC) | ~0.05 |
| Intraday usefulness | none (daily data) |
A weak, slow bias (IC ~0.05) usable only on multi-day horizons and majors with clean labeled exchange wallets. Attribution noise (wallet clustering) and daily cadence cap it. Context input, not a trade trigger.
On-chain flow is real information but arrives slow and dirty. It shapes a multi-day lean; it cannot time an intraday entry.