PARTIAL · macro only
Hypothesis
The MVRV Z-score (deviation of market cap from realized cap) marks macro tops and bottoms; extreme readings time multi-month BTC cycle turns.
Math — MVRV Z-score
Standardize the gap between market value and realized value:
$$ Z = \frac{\text{MarketCap} - \text{RealizedCap}}{\sigma(\text{MarketCap})} $$
Method
Historical MVRV-Z on BTC since 2015. Label $Z>7$ as distribution, $Z<0$ as accumulation. Evaluate forward 90/180-day returns from threshold crossings.
Results
| Cycle tops flagged ($Z>7$) | 3/3 historically |
| Cycle bottoms flagged ($Z<0$) | 3/3 historically |
| Sample size (independent cycles) | n=3–4 |
| Intra-cycle / tactical use | no edge |
Strong macro context (every historical extreme aligned with a turn) but n=3–4 cycles is anecdote, not statistics, and it gives zero tactical (days–weeks) signal. Used to bias long-horizon risk posture, never to time trades.
On-chain cycle metrics describe four data points. They are a compass for posture, not a clock for entries — and four observations cannot be backtested into significance.