KILLED · engulfed by fees
Hypothesis
A green candle whose body engulfs the prior red body at a local low signals reversal — long the close. Price-action staple #2.
Definition
C_{t-1}
Method
Long the engulfing close near a 48-bar low, SL under both lows, TP 2R. Same harness. n = 11,303.
Results
| Trades | 11,303 |
| Win rate | 33% |
| Mean net per trade | −0.19% |
| Profit factor | 0.64 |
| t-statistic | −16.6 |
Why it failed
- Eleven thousand trades, t = −16.6. The pattern fires everywhere in crypto chop and pays the spread every time.
Two-candle psychology does not survive contact with a fee schedule.
The more often a pattern fires, the more certain its verdict — and the more fees it donates while you find out.