KILLED · t = −14.7
Hypothesis
A candle with a long lower wick (≥2× body) printed at a local low shows "rejection" — buyers stepped in; long the close. Price-action course staple #1.
Definition
wick_{low} \ge 2\times|C-O| \;\wedge\; wick_{low} \ge 0.6\,(H-L) \;\wedge\; L_t \le \min L_{48}\times1.002
Method
Long the pin close, SL under the wick, TP 2R, 8h cap. Same harness. n = 5,866.
Results
| Trades | 5,866 |
| Win rate | 32% |
| Mean net per trade | −0.20% |
| Profit factor | 0.56 |
| t-statistic | −14.7 |
Why it failed
- On a 5m chart a "rejection wick" at the low is usually a liquidation ripple inside a continuing move, not accumulation.
- PF 0.56 across six thousand trades, negative in both halves. Among the worst risk-adjusted results in this entire log.
The single most-taught candlestick nets −0.20%/trade with t = −14.7. Candle anatomy is narrative, not signal.
A candlestick is one sample of intra-bar order flow. Reading intent from its shape is palm-reading with OHLC data.