PARKED · attribution
Hypothesis
When SOPR crosses 1 (aggregate coins moving at a profit vs loss), it marks capitulation/euphoria inflection points tradeable on swing horizons.
Math — SOPR
Ratio of realized value to value at creation, over spent outputs:
$$ \text{SOPR} = \frac{\sum \text{price}_{\text{spent}}\cdot\text{vol}}{\sum \text{price}_{\text{created}}\cdot\text{vol}} $$
Method
BTC SOPR (and short-term-holder SOPR) vs forward swing returns around the 1.0 cross.
The 1.0 cross aligns with inflections ex-post, but signals are sparse and the clean variant (STH-SOPR) needs a paid on-chain feed for real-time. Parked pending a reliable live source; macro context only, n too small to validate.
On-chain ratios that "call bottoms" do so a handful of times per cycle — beautiful on a chart, untestable as a system.