KILLED · 24% win rate on 13k trades
Hypothesis
The MACD histogram turning positive signals momentum ignition; long the cross, exit the reverse cross. Arguably the most-screenshotted indicator in existence.
Math
MACD_t = EMA_{12}(C) - EMA_{26}(C), \qquad hist_t = MACD_t - EMA_9(MACD)
Method
Long on histogram cross-up, exit on cross-down or 48h. 30 most-liquid USDT-M perps, 84d of 5m bars, 0.20% round-trip friction, time-split. n = 13,430.
Results
| Trades | 13,430 |
| Win rate | 24% |
| Mean net per trade | −0.17% |
| Profit factor | 0.64 |
| t-statistic | −10.9 |
Why it failed
- MACD is a smoothed difference of smoothed averages — twice-lagged price. On 5m crypto it fires constantly and catches every chop.
- Negative in both time halves (−0.15/−0.19). Thirteen thousand trades leave no room for "you used it wrong".
The most famous indicator in retail trading nets −0.17%/trade with a 24% win rate. It describes the past beautifully and predicts nothing.
Every transformation of price alone is lagging by construction. Stacking two lags (MACD of EMA) doubles the delay, not the insight.