KILLED · the cloud does not help
Hypothesis
Tenkan crossing above Kijun with price above Kijun is the canonical Ichimoku long trigger — sold as a complete "system" in weekend courses.
Math
Tenkan = \tfrac{\max H_9 + \min L_9}{2}, \qquad Kijun = \tfrac{\max H_{26} + \min L_{26}}{2}
Method
Long TK cross-up with price above Kijun, exit reverse cross or 48h. Same harness as the whole series. n = 6,785.
Results
| Trades | 6,785 |
| Win rate | 26% |
| Mean net per trade | −0.16% |
| Profit factor | 0.71 |
| t-statistic | −6.7 |
Why it failed
- Donchian-midline crosses are just slower price lags with Japanese names. Same disease as MACD: late entry, chop churn, fees.
- The mystique (cloud, five lines, 1930s rice-trader lore) sells courses; the math is two moving midpoints.
A −0.16%/trade system with a 26% win rate, negative in both halves. The vocabulary is exotic; the losses are ordinary.
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