KILLED · no timing edge
Hypothesis
A low SSR (large stablecoin supply relative to BTC market cap) means high "dry powder" and is bullish; trading SSR extremes anticipates rallies.
Math — SSR
$$ \text{SSR} = \frac{\text{BTC marketcap}}{\text{stablecoin supply}} $$
Method
SSR and its Bollinger-band oscillator vs forward 30-day BTC returns since 2019.
Results
| Correlation SSR-extreme → fwd return | ~0.03 |
| Confounded by total-market trend | yes |
SSR is a slow ratio of two trending series; its "extremes" mostly restate where we are in the cycle and add no timing information beyond price itself. Killed as a signal.
A ratio of two co-trending aggregates tells you the trend you already see. Decompose before claiming a metric is informative.